Thomas
Thress, M.A., Vice President
Mr. Thress is Vice President of RCF, where he leads RCF’s
forecasting, econometric, and quantitative analysis
activities. His principal work at RCF has involved modeling
the demand for goods and services for a variety of clients,
including the United States Postal Service and Circus
Circus Casinos. His work also includes volume and revenue
forecasting for the Postal Service.
Mr. Thress designed the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet used by the
Postal Service to make official volume and revenue
forecasts used for internal planning purposes and in
regulatory proceedings. In addition, he coordinated the
Postal Service’s volume forecasting effort in support of
major classification reform of Postal Service. Mr. Thress
analyzed shifts of mail from current classifications into
new classifications and evaluated the implications of
reclassification on Postal Service revenues, volumes, and
costs. In addition, he developed a methodology for modeling
mailers' use of worksharing discounts and predicting future
responses of mailers to worksharing discounts offered by
the Postal Service. His work on this project was summarized
in written testimony and supporting documentation presented
before the Postal Rate Commission.
Mr. Thress has appeared as a witness before the Postal Rate
Commission on behalf of the United States Postal Service on
three occasions, presenting expert testimony on the
appropriate distribution of Postal Service costs,
econometric demand equations for various types of mail, as
well as presenting volume forecasts.
Mr. Thress’s econometric work has included a program of
ongoing research using regression analysis into demand
equation estimation and volume forecasting for the U.S.
Postal Service. This work has included an extensive
analysis of postal markets, including the correspondence
and transactions and direct mail advertising markets, to
help the Postal Service understand the behavior of mailers
within these markets. His other econometric work has
included developing an estimate of the effect of a proposed
Chicago casino complex on horse racing in Illinois,
integrating time series regression analysis with a survey
of race track patrons conducted by RCF.
Prior to working with RCF, Mr. Thress worked as a research
analyst for 1993 Nobel Laureate Robert Fogel of the
University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
Mr. Thress received a B.A. in Economics and a B.S. in
Mathematics from Valparaiso University, and an M.A. in
Economics from the University of Chicago.