RCF’s latest publication, Economic Update and Forecast for April 2015 is available for download:
• The economy slowed in the first quarter as lower oil prices and a strong dollar hit the energy sector, exports, and job creation.
• A key positive has been increases in labor earnings and household savings which we believe will eventually lead to stronger consumer spending.
• We expect the Fed to raise rates in the third quarter though the rate lift-off may be further delayed if the economy is slow to rebound from what we believe is a temporary lull. In any case, we expect fed funds rate increases to be slower and more modest than in the past.