Recovery Stalling as Virus Toll Mounts
Peter Bernstein, Vice President, pbernstein@rcfecon.com, 312-431-1540 x1515
RCF’s December Recovery Scorecard shows the economy has recovered 83% of its recession loss, a scant improvement over the 82% recovery recorded in our November scorecard. [Note that since economic data are released with a lag, the December report includes data mostly from November. Historical data are often revised so comparisons with earlier months may reflect the impact of revisions.] Four measures – real income less transfers, real consumer spending, the labor force, and vehicle sales – declined in the most recent month. See the Appendix for a comparison of monthly recovery percentages. The jobs market has regained 12 of the 22 million jobs lost in the spring (56%) and the labor force has recovered less than half of its losses. On the positive side, new building permits and existing home sales are higher than they were before the recession began.
